stat notes 2023-05-05 PkVZX

probability formula, k times out of n

C(n,k) * p(e)^k * (1 - p(e))^(n-k)

where p(e) is the probability of event e. C(n,k) is the binomial formula

note to kathy, the binomial formula. 2 explanations. n things take k. or, possible arrangement of n red ball and k blue ball.


box model

box model turn a chance event into drawing tickets from a box. this helps analyze the probability.

expected value. In probability theory, the expected value (aka mean, average) is a generalization of the weighted average. Informally, the expected value is the arithmetic mean of a large number of independently selected outcomes of a random variable. Expected value

Limit[ X[i]/n , {i, 1,n}] == E[X]

expected value = (num of draw) * (average)

standard error = sqrt[ num of draws] * standardDeviation standard error is an estimate of prediction error