How Fast Does Internet Speed Grow?

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Since 1990, hard disk storage capacity doubles in about every 1 year, computing speed doubles by about every 2 years. What about internet speed?

Here's my internet connection speed history:

YearConnection TypeSpeed (kbit/s)Comment
1991Modem 1200 (V.22)1.2
199756k modem56
1998Innetix wireless, San Jose (at work; Brainpower.com)800
1999alink.net ISDN, Mountain View (at work; Weborder.com)280
2002Pacfic Bell ADSL, Palo Alto (home)880137 upload
2003Cable modem with 802.11b wireless, Sacramento (friend Paul K home)800240.1 upload.
2003library, wireless, Palo Alto980112 upload.
2006DSL, Mountain View (Danny's)980
2008Cable, Camcast, Mountain View5288highest occured, after midnight
2009Cable, Comcast, Mountain View8410highest occured, after midnight
2013Cable, Comcast, Mountain View22000
2014Cable, Comcast, Mountain View26000ping 17ms

kbit/s = 10^3 bits per second.

internet speed 71120 2014-02-16
my internet speed, as of 2013

How Fast Net Speed Grow?

According to Wikipedia, it's 50% faster per year. The formula is then c*1.5^n where n is number of years, and c is a constant. This seems pretty accurate. Assuming in 1990 it's 1.2 kbits/s. We have:

internet speed growth
Internet speed growth. Table[{1990 + x, 1.2*1.5^x}, {x, 0, 22}]
(* kbits/s *)
{{1990,     1.2},
 {1992,      2.7},
 {1994,      6.075},
 {1996,     13.6688},
 {1998,     30.7547},
 {2000,     69.198},
 {2002,    155.696},
 {2004,    350.315},
 {2006,    788.209},
 {2008,   1773.47},
 {2010,   3990.31},
 {2012,   8978.19},
 {2014,  20200.9},
 {2016,  45452.1},
 {2018, 102267.},
 {2020, 230101.}}

Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth By Jakob Nielsen. @ www.useit.com…

Digital Audio Speeds

MP3

Other audio

Digital Video Speeds

Device/Protocol Speeds

Devices i had personal experienced since i started to use computer in 1991:

ThingSpeed (Mbit/s)
MIDI0.0313
PC Floppy Disk Controller (1.44MB)0.5
CD Controller (1x)1.2
Bluetooth 1.11
Bluetooth 2.0+EDR3
DVD Controller (1x)11.1
Ethernet (10base-X)10
802.11b DSSS 0.12511
802.11g OFDM 0.12554
Fast Ethernet (100base-X)100
USB Hi-Speed (USB 2.0)480
PC133 SDRAM8528

Reference:

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